China Biotech Weekly #1: $136B in 2025 — The Year Chinese Biotech Rewrote the Global Licensing Playbook

This Week's Top Takeaway

2025 was the year China became the world's indispensable biotech licensing partner. 157 out-licensing deals worth approximately $136 billion — up from 94 deals and $51.9B in 2024. China now accounts for roughly one-third of all global biotech out-licensing value, up from 8% in 2021. This isn't a trend. It's a structural shift in where the global industry sources its pipeline.

The Five Mega-Deals That Defined 2025

Deal	Total Value	Upfront	Modality
AstraZeneca – CSPC (石药集团)	$18.5B	$100M	Small molecule
GSK – Hengrui (恒瑞医药)	~$12B	$500M	Multi-asset (12 programs)
BMS/BioNTech – BNT-327	$11.1B	Undisclosed	Bispecific (PD-L1×VEGF)
Merck – Kelun-Biotech (科伦博泰)	$9.4B+	$175M	ADC platform (7 targets)
AbbVie – RemeGen (荣昌生物)	$5.6B	$100M	ADC (HER2)

Combined: $56.6B+ across just five transactions. That's more than the entire China out-licensing market was worth in 2023.

Three Structural Shifts Driving the Boom

1. Chinese biotechs are licensing portfolios, not just molecules. The GSK-Hengrui deal ($500M upfront for 12 programs across respiratory, immunology, and oncology) signals that leading Chinese innovators now have pipeline depth sufficient for framework agreements. BD teams still evaluating assets one molecule at a time are leaving speed — and value — on the table. 2. Average upfront payments are rising fast. From $52M in 2022 to $141M in 2025 (per Evaluate/BioCentury data). Chinese assets are no longer "bargain biotech." The Pfizer-3SBio (三生制药) deal paid $1.25B upfront on a $4.8B total — a 26% ratio reflecting clinical-stage premium. Meanwhile AstraZeneca paid just $100M upfront on $18.5B — a 0.5% ratio on a pre-clinical asset. The spread reflects different risk profiles, not a pricing anomaly. 3. The modality mix is broadening. While ADCs and bispecifics dominate headlines, the AstraZeneca-CSPC (石药集团) deal — a small molecule lipoprotein disruptor for cardiovascular/metabolic disease — proves China's innovation extends well beyond antibody engineering. CSPC's medicinal chemistry produced the single largest headline deal of the year.

BIOSECURE Watch

Status: 🔴 Newly Enacted

The BIOSECURE Act was signed into law on December 18, 2025. OMB now has 12 months to publish the BCC list. Key developments since enactment:

Congressional leadership sent a letter to DoD requesting WuXi AppTec (药明康德), WuXi Biologics, and WuXi XDC be added to the 1260H list — which would make them Category A BCCs
15+ Am Law 100 firms have published client advisories (Baker McKenzie, Arnold & Porter, Latham & Watkins, Ropes & Gray, K&L Gates, Goodwin Procter, Hogan Lovells, Morrison Foerster, among others)
BGI Genomics (华大基因) and MGI Tech remain on the 1260H list as the only confirmed future BCCs

Takeaways for BD Teams

China is now essential infrastructure for global pharma licensing. One-third of all deal value. 157 transactions. This isn't optional — it's where the pipeline is. Structure your China engagement to capture the opportunity while managing compliance risk.

The BIOSECURE Act creates a two-track market. Drug licensing from Chinese innovators (Hengrui, BeiGene, Akeso) is not restricted. CDMO/CRO dependency on potentially designated entities (WuXi, BGI) is the compliance exposure. Don't conflate the two.

2026 will be bigger. Average deal sizes in early 2026 are tracking 76% larger than 2025. The pipeline of China-originated assets approaching Phase II/III is deeper than ever. The companies that built China BD capabilities in 2025 will harvest them in 2026.

China Biotech Weekly is published every Thursday. For questions, tips, or deal intelligence, reach out at antony@chinabiointel.com. — Antony Tan